With a cumulative rating of 1.74 out of 5, Ukraine ranks 21st in the ranking of the investment potential of developing countries in terms of energy transition, and 48th globally. This is stated in the tenth Climatescope report, which is carried out annually by the analytical center of the Bloomberg agency – BloombergNEF – and covers 136 countries of the world (107 developing and 29 developed).
Analysts note the country’s progress in fulfilling the First Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, according to which Ukraine pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 60% of the 1990 levels by 2030, but did so much earlier. So, in 2019, according to the draft Ukraine’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 1990-2019, carbone dioxide emissions amounted to 332 million tonnes – 37.6% of the 1990 level.
It is also indicated that Ukraine, according to the updated Nationally Determined Contribution, pledged to reduce emissions by 65% by 2030 and increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in electromix to 25% by 2035.
The report notes that Ukraine has met the previous target of increasing the share of renewables to 11% by 2020, in particular thanks to financial incentives and benefits from the government.
The analysts also mention “green” auctions, which are expected in 2022-2025.
At the same time, the issue for refusing fossil fuels refers to Ukraine’s promise to abandon coal energy by 2035, which was given by representatives of the Ukrainian delegation at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. At the same time, in a comment to the Green Deal portal, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Olha Stefanishyna said that the Cabinet of Ministers did not approve official documents in order to abandon coal generation by 2035, and the Ministry of Energy will have to adjust this date.
Analysing the transport sector of Ukraine, the experts draw attention to the goal of the National Transport Strategy to achieve a 75% share of electric transport in domestic transport by 2030, a bill regulating the operation of only electric buses on the routes after 2030, as well as a bill that prohibits the import of gasoline and diesel cars to Ukraine from 2030.
Despite the absence of grants or loans for the purchase of electric vehicles, Ukraine intends, with the support of the EBRD, to introduce interest-free loans for these purposes, BloombergNEF says. At the same time, it is noted that in Ukraine since 2016 the import duty on electric vehicles has not been levied and the VAT exemption has been extended until 2022.
The weakest dynamics of development is observed in the housing and utilities services sector. The analysts emphasize that Ukraine is highly dependent on gas for heating buildings, while energy efficiency standards are at the minimum level. At the same time, the “warm loans” programme is mentioned.